Optimal Mane~ary Palicy and Sacrifice Ra~ia

نویسنده

Jeffrey C. Fuhrer

چکیده

The annual average rate of inflation in the GDP deflator for 1980 was 10.1 percent. By 1984, the same measure had dropped to 4.4 percent, and from 1990 through the end of 1993, the rate of inflation has averaged 3.2 percent, deviating only moderately from that average over the period. From 1981 to 1984, the civilian unemployment rate averaged 8.6 percent, peaking at 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 1982. A common interpretation of this episode is that intentionally contractionary monetary policy caused the rise in unemployment, and the fall in inflation was a consequence of the high unemployment rate. Under this interpretation, the period from 1982 to the present was a successful disinflation engineered by the Federal Reserve. The disinflation was evidently successful insofar as it lowered the inflation rate. But was it in any sense an optimal disinflation? Was the path that the real economy took during the course of disinflation satisfactory? Did the Federal Reserve move its instrument so as to obtain the desired rate of inflation while minimizing the disruption to the real economy? If not, what course would have been better? Fuhrer (1994) considers one way of assessing the performance of monetary policy. The measure is a steady-state, rather than a pathspecific, notion of optimality. A policy is considered optimal if, given relative preferences (distastes may be a better word) over deviations of policy goals from their targets, the policy minimizes the weighted

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